May 1 – With the summer transfer window just a month away, the CIES Football Observatory has partnered with German data company Impect in a move designed to deepen the game’s understanding of emerging talent beyond Europe’s elite leagues.
The first product of the partnership appears in CIES’s latest research, which showcases 100 U20 outfield players from 45 leagues outside the big five.
The list is based on Impect’s Packing Expected Threat (PxT) model, which measures how much a player’s actions increase or reduce the likelihood of a goal. The rankings are also weighted by the level of competition faced, offering a more nuanced snapshot than raw stats alone.
Top of the list is FC Porto’s attacking midfielder Rodrigo Mora, who turns 18 this week. He edges out River Plate’s Franco Mastantuono and clubmate Martim Fernandes. All three are already catching the eye, and their inclusion here will only sharpen interest as clubs look for value ahead of the transfer window.
In terms of market value, Ajax’s Jorrel Hato leads the pack. The 17-year-old centre-back is estimated at €52.7 million and has previously been linked with Liverpool, though recent reports suggest the Premier League champions may now prefer Bournemouth’s Milos Kerkez to bolster their left flank.
Chelsea’s long-term planning also gets a nod. Geovany Quenda, signed earlier this year for around €51.7 million but set to remain in Lisbon on loan, is listed with a current estimated value of €40 million. While that gap might raise eyebrows, Chelsea appear content to take the long-term view on the young attacker.
Further down the list, Club Tijuana’s Gilberto Mora stands out as the only player under 17 to make the cut — a notable marker of promise from Mexico, and a player likely to be on scouting shortlists before long.
With clubs preparing to do business and fans scouring the rumour mill, the timing of this CIES-Impect tie-up couldn’t be better. It’s also a reminder that while the transfer headlines are often dominated by familiar names, the next big deal might just come from somewhere off the usual grid.
Contact the writer of this story, Harry Ewing, at moc.l1746115030labto1746115030ofdlr1746115030owedi1746115030sni@g1746115030niwe.1746115030yrrah1746115030